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Thursday, April 2, 2015

Winter review..

Now that we are into April and any shot of snow/ice is really gone-- let's go back and see how I graded out.

Winter outlook 14-15




Overall, we grade out pretty well.
December was the warmest month and in Lynchburg we ended up right in the range of snowfall, with Roanoke and Blacksburg being just a smidge low. I called for temps to be 1-2 degrees below normal, and we ended up in the -3 to -4 range region wide because of the ridiculous -9 to -10 departure in February.

One of the best quotes is:

1-2 degrees isn't much I'd not be shocked if that 30 day stretch I mentioned is a -4 to 5. I think the we get a stretch where 2-3 storms beat us up pretty good in a 10 day period and snow falls on top of a snow pack during that stretch. 


Now, my timing was slow by about two weeks and that was because the trough axis was a bit east and pulled back west into mid February. We had some colder temps before that but it was basically dry. 

It started out on Valentines day with a decent Saturday that ended with a STRONG cold Front passage, where we had a about a quarter inch of snow. That lead us up to the Presidents Day storm where 6-9 inches of snow was common over all of our area. The following Saturday we had Snow to ice where parts of Amherst county had 10-12 inches, while Rustburg south only had 1-2 inches. The official number on the Climo report for Lynchburg is 6 inches, but I think that was a mistake that I talked to Sean Sublette about before he left and it was never corrected at the NWS. That would actually knock Feb 15 out of the snowiest February ever, but this is science and exact figures matter. 

Next we had the Huffman special on Feb 25-26 where 3-4 days out many outlets bought the storm well to the south and I held on my 3-6 inch call and it worked out very well for our region. 

Lastly, the snow to ice in early March topped of our winter season. My forecast was on par with everyone else as we all had to guess at where the sleet line ended up. 

Best Call: 3-6 inch event Feb 25-26

Proud of: Hitting the sleet on the Presidents day storm. It cost us about an inch and a half of snow here, but not I did pull the sleet into Lynchburg if you check my map Here

Needed work: The Saturday event I played the north trend and it drifted a bit south last second. I could have hit the ice a bit harder too-- it wasn't a HUGE ice storm but it was significant.

Summer Outlook? Working on it-- El Nino summers tend to be warmer than normal.

I grade that a Solid A-- not bad compared to my TOTAL F for my outlook last winter.  We've hit our average snowfall the past 2 winters and 12-13 was only off by 1-2 inches. We've also hit a trend of bigger events. From The 96-97 winter until 07-08 winter we only had 3-4 snow events over 6 inches in that 13 year stretch. Since 08-09 we've had 9. 

Saturday, March 7, 2015

Any cold left?

We are stepping out of what was one of the most intense 3 week winter periods in our area ever. The time period rivals any 3 week stretch combined cold/snow-- we had a few colder and few snowier, but combination of them both is top notch.

Finally, a break is on the way and we should begin to feel some seasonal temperatures. March is known for it's wild swing and it seems the next week or so should be normal to even ABOVE normal. Late next weekend/early the following week we will be be looking at the rebuilding of the west coast ridge that led to our continual dumps of cold air from the north pole. This could be another round of perhaps late March mischief.

Understanding the pattern, the PDO is a scale that measures temps in the pacific in certain locations. Positive numbers indicate a better change for a west coast ridge. Those who follow the weather know that Cali and nearby states were super warm and dry. I know I recall seeing countless reports of insane numbers in Seattle of 70-80 to the place that's the 49 and rain capital of the world. The PDO is a cyclical pattern.

As we start to wind down winter, I tend to fade out a bit in severe/hurricane season, especially when it's boring around here. It's probable PAST when I need, but I've been working on a blog that conveys some ideas about finding a good forecast in the digital era. In the next week or so, it will likely be a 2 part blog that may help you find out quicker what the weather will be like.

Thursday, March 5, 2015

No big changes

Map from Yesterday holds..

Sleet is going to be an issue where sleet develops between 8-10 in our area and doesn't change to snow till mid to late afternoon. Temps keep falling all day-- upper 20's by late day. We do get a few hours of snow late afternoon and evening.

Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Rain, Ice then snow-- Tricky forecast on the way. School days appear to be a 2fer-- Thursday and Friday off for most schools.

Tricky forecast on the way with ANOTHER winter event a virtual lock. The difference is we could escape with a minor inch or two of sleet and snow or could end up with 4-5 inches.

It's a simple set up, where an arctic cold front is pushing in the same time a HUGE slug of moisture is moving in. The exact time the the front gets in, and then the time it takes for the sleet to mix with snow will determine what happens.

Timing is Everything.

If anything the trend has been to nudge this more south, as all data yesterday moved that direction. There has been many systems where they nudge close enough to keep us in the game, and then as the event unfolds, the snow/sleet line ends up 50 miles north of modeled. This is HUGE because as modeled now-- The sleet line gets to Roanoke/Lynchburg before Sun up tomorrow, while it doesn't reach Danville until noon. So, sleet line moving about 10 miles an hour?? Further, after that we are waiting for the entire column of air to cool enough to flip it to all snow. What would be 6 inches of snow, could end up being just 1.5 inches of sleet. (Snow falls at a 10-1 ratio, while sleet is 3-1 at best)

Here is a map of my thoughts as of now-- In General, along 460 from Blacksburg to Roanoke to Lynchburg.  1-2 inches of sleet, 1-2 inches of snow 2-4 inches total. Change over rain to sleet 5-7 AM, Chang from sleet to snow 12-2 PM. It all ends by dinner time.

Southside- Martinsville to Danville 1-2 inches total sleet snow. Sleet mixes Late morning/early afternoon, ending as snow.

We have no wiggle room, meaning if this is off by 30 miles south, we only get an inch or two. Conversely, if the model data is off 30 miles to the north we could be looking at 6-7 inches. A fluid situation like will require some game time updates, so follow me on FB or Twitter for updates.


Monday, March 2, 2015

Wednesday Night- Thursday

Please follow me on Twitter--  @Lynchburgwx or follow me on FB personally or my Lynchburg Weather FB page. That's where I can convey some quick thoughts without the total blog post.

Big rain maker comes through and the snow should be melted and gone by Wednesday, and the very day another round of snow and ice is likely at this point.

Why?

Arctic front comes after the first round of rain and slowy sinks through our area. This is a key to the forecast because there is another ripple of energy riding along this cold front and depending on where this sets up, the ice and snow follows.

I about always play the north trend on the models and .. and as of now we are on the bottom rung of decent snows on some models while others go well to our north with about all of the frozen. This would mean that we may get little or no snow and ice.  Those north models are the same ones that pointed last week before the rest of the model date pushed the heavier snow into our area. I give pause a bit because when there is legit arctic air, that's a game changer at times on north trends (AKA, stops it-- reference blogs from last March 3)

I'm going to hedge in the middle now and suggest that the Heaviest snow (4+ inches) stays north but up to 4 is possible Wednesday night into Thursday. I also have a bit of concern that we have some sleet issues because arctic fronts VS subtropical jet is a breeding ground for COLD air undercutting the warm and a warm layer hangs on between 5-8k feet above the ground.

Extreme outcomes:

If we max our the snow potential, 6 or more inches is very possible. This will be a huge event over parts of KY, WV, TN and sw from there.

If we escape with a minor hit, literally nothing could fall.

Last week I felt very comfortable with my call all along  3-6 and it was very good. Here, I am much less certain and just trying to get the word out of the "possible" event. I'll FB/Tweet a few thoughts as the mid day models unfold as I have time during the work day and will have a full blog update IF needed to update where

Saturday, February 28, 2015

Advisory level Ice event likely Sunday

Well, you had 3 days off from winter weather and 35 degrees has never felt so balmy, right?







Ice event likely tomorrow--not a huge deal, but churches may be cancelled and play dates will be spoiled.

Storm tracks well to our NW, but our low level cold will be difficult to scour out-- high temps today only in the 30 degree range or so. A quick burst of snow is possible before sleet and then eventually freezing rain falls. Sleet could be a coating to a half inch or so and then we just wait out the freezing rain. Temps should creep above freezing late afternoon/early evening.

Expect the NWS to issue a Winter weather advisory this afternoon for all regions from basically all day. Expect southside, per the norm to warm up fastest.


Looking forward, we should remove the snow pack with some warmer temps, high dew points and rain Tuesday. Thursday, another cold front approaches and the models hint at a shot of some winter type weather.  My hunch is the GFS overnight is too far south and we would end up on the ice side of things if anything (But ice in March is rare here, but happened last year)

March-- looks variable, with honestly maybe a few more shots at winter weather the first 2 weeks.

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Winter Storm wrap up and is March a Lion or a Lamb, or both.

Yes, I was glad it panned out how I had anticipated and was able to let you all know before most forecasters even mtioned snow. BUT, you're only as good as your last forecast so it's time to move on. General 4-6 inch amounts in the Lynchburg area, 5-7 southside, 3-5 NRV and 2-3 far NW regions. What was interesting for me at least, I dozed off around 11:30 and the snow was just about to start. When I woke up it was a very low ratio snow. Once we got some good lift going on, we had some really high ratio snow from that point forward. Hence, even with a high of 34 today and decent cloud cover A LOT of snow melted today.

Side note:Charlotte had a big bust and I felt bad for the kids and snow lovers down there. The NWS forecast was for 7-11 inches, but the sleet and rain line was just south of town. 20 miles off and most of the city got a quick inch or two then rain.

Moving forward- Outside shot of a system Sunday bringing a little light snow or ice and another system Tuesday but at this time they look NON threatening. Granted, I've not had the time to really look into it, but at worse it's a quick coating to an inch then a little ice then rain. Could be nothing too.

Tuesday is another maybe "brief snow, a little more ice and then rain". Would not be shocked if our snow cover is gone by Wednesday at the latest, except those GIANT parking lot plowed places.

BTW, I appreciate this shares of my blog on facebook and other places. PLEASE share all you can and like my FB page. One long term goal I have is to blog for our local newspaper somewhat like Kevin Myatt does for the Roanoke times (If you follow his blog, he's excellent and 99% of the time we agree- we have an on going chat with another forecaster to bounce ideas around ) Point being, help me reach my goal /