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Saturday, February 28, 2015

Advisory level Ice event likely Sunday

Well, you had 3 days off from winter weather and 35 degrees has never felt so balmy, right?







Ice event likely tomorrow--not a huge deal, but churches may be cancelled and play dates will be spoiled.

Storm tracks well to our NW, but our low level cold will be difficult to scour out-- high temps today only in the 30 degree range or so. A quick burst of snow is possible before sleet and then eventually freezing rain falls. Sleet could be a coating to a half inch or so and then we just wait out the freezing rain. Temps should creep above freezing late afternoon/early evening.

Expect the NWS to issue a Winter weather advisory this afternoon for all regions from basically all day. Expect southside, per the norm to warm up fastest.


Looking forward, we should remove the snow pack with some warmer temps, high dew points and rain Tuesday. Thursday, another cold front approaches and the models hint at a shot of some winter type weather.  My hunch is the GFS overnight is too far south and we would end up on the ice side of things if anything (But ice in March is rare here, but happened last year)

March-- looks variable, with honestly maybe a few more shots at winter weather the first 2 weeks.

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Winter Storm wrap up and is March a Lion or a Lamb, or both.

Yes, I was glad it panned out how I had anticipated and was able to let you all know before most forecasters even mtioned snow. BUT, you're only as good as your last forecast so it's time to move on. General 4-6 inch amounts in the Lynchburg area, 5-7 southside, 3-5 NRV and 2-3 far NW regions. What was interesting for me at least, I dozed off around 11:30 and the snow was just about to start. When I woke up it was a very low ratio snow. Once we got some good lift going on, we had some really high ratio snow from that point forward. Hence, even with a high of 34 today and decent cloud cover A LOT of snow melted today.

Side note:Charlotte had a big bust and I felt bad for the kids and snow lovers down there. The NWS forecast was for 7-11 inches, but the sleet and rain line was just south of town. 20 miles off and most of the city got a quick inch or two then rain.

Moving forward- Outside shot of a system Sunday bringing a little light snow or ice and another system Tuesday but at this time they look NON threatening. Granted, I've not had the time to really look into it, but at worse it's a quick coating to an inch then a little ice then rain. Could be nothing too.

Tuesday is another maybe "brief snow, a little more ice and then rain". Would not be shocked if our snow cover is gone by Wednesday at the latest, except those GIANT parking lot plowed places.

BTW, I appreciate this shares of my blog on facebook and other places. PLEASE share all you can and like my FB page. One long term goal I have is to blog for our local newspaper somewhat like Kevin Myatt does for the Roanoke times (If you follow his blog, he's excellent and 99% of the time we agree- we have an on going chat with another forecaster to bounce ideas around ) Point being, help me reach my goal /

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

The kick is spotted..it's up

It's been an exciting run of afternoon model runs where FINALLY most data agrees with my 3-6 call. Now, let's not jump for joy before we actually see the snow fall, but things are looking good.

For most of our area a general 3-6 inches will fall. This includes Roanoke - Lynchburg-SML- Martinsville-Danville- NRV areas.

All the counties along the VA/NC state line are at risk from some bonus snow. Places from Danville, east to South Boston, Bugs Island have legit shots to see up to 10 inches. This will have "banding" of snow and if you are in those areas, snow will add up fast. Those bands will flirt with Lynchburg, but likely not quite make it in.

It's GOOD!

(Live call of this storm)

Updates on FB/Tweet as needed- As you all know I'm a fan of snow pictures so go ahead and tag me if you want! I do look at all of them.


Monday, February 23, 2015

I'm feeling it, and models are trending my way.

No big changes. I'm going to hold at 3-6 for our area, with maybe a bit more down towards the VA-NC line. I think the 3 inch line makes up to the Staunton-Charlottesville area.

Most data is SLOWLY moving towards my forecast. Bottom line-- it's a strong vort on the sub tropical jet. There are some sound reasons to say why it won't trend north but they always do, even if the track is the same latitude, the precipitation spreads out more. I could bore you with model maps, but just know that every run, most data slides north 15-25 miles. By this time tomorrow we should see close to what I expect. One phantom run of the NAM will sink south, causing fear and panic.Hold it steady and we should be good.

Summary:

In VA-- south of a Covington to Charlottesville To Fredericksburg line, a general 3-6 inches. Some places in the MT Empire, along the state line and Hampton Roads area could grab a few extra inches.

Will fine tune this forecast later and add more detail.

Sunday, February 22, 2015

More snow?? (Don't shoot the messanger)

What a wintery week--
For the week, officially, 13 inches of snow fell and we had a negative departure on our temps of just under -24 degrees. Most schools close all of last week and some are already closed tomorrow.

Lynchburg set an all time record low of -1

More snow??

Maybe??

Long story short-- another arctic shot comes in tomorrow and another short wave rides out of the south west. The models want to suppress it to and keep the snow 100 miles or so to our south.

How many times have I mentioned north trends on the models??

Now, we are 4 days out and I'm not promising (or cursing) anyone with more snow-- but I struggle to think we won't at least clipped from this (1-2 inches) or maybe even a decent snow (3-6 range)

This would be Wednesday night into Thursday.

More updates later.

Saturday, February 21, 2015

Special Morning Update- increased snow totals. - Total NOW CAST event.

Light snow is breaking out in western regions already, with flurries in Roanoke already. This is a good sign for snow lovers, and 

As I said last night, the difference between 6 inches and 2-3 is only 15 miles based on model data. Slight shifts mean all the difference. Still watching this, the model trends REALLY drifted the snow back to our region. The euro, which had no snow as of noon yesterday drapes the 3 inch line into our region now..

With that, Roanoke to Lynchburg 3-6 inches

15 miles north of these LOCALS 6-10 inches. 

Ice mixes late afternoon, some rain overnight. 

This is a NOWCAST event-- I can't promise we won't have to massage these numbers either way. Facebook and Twitter updates all day as needed. Snow may be falling VERY soon into LYH. 

This is a snow map from the RGEM model-- it's been the MOST south all along and has drifted south even more. This model says double digits in Roanoke and getting darn close to that in LYH..

Friday, February 20, 2015

It's going to be ugly-- BUT, not that ugly

It's 6 am and the current temp at LYH airport is -7. I have a resource near the airport who reported -4 on his car 2 hours ago. Ridiculous cold topping off a very wintery week.

Weekend Storm talk:

The Euro has a chance to redeem itself, BIG TIME! It's not been great all winter, Highlighted by the 12 inches that didn't fall in Philly, the 2-3 feet that didn't fall in NYC and numerous phantom snow storms in the 4-6 day range that never came to fruition. However, as all the early morning and mid day data trended towards a pretty big event, the Euro continued to hold to the idea that the best snows past well to our north and west while we get lighter stuff and that by the time significant precipitation moves in, we are in ice mode heading towards rain mode.

All of the model data has stepped in that direction. As a result, the NWS has downgraded the Watches to an advisory for places east of the Blue Ridge and warnings west of the Blue Ridge.

What do you think?

This isn't a north trend storm wise, but just where the precipitation will develop and move east. With most other guidance moving towards the Euro, I'm going to shade all data in that direction.

1-2 inches Lynchburg area. Coating to Inch Danville, and 2-4 west of the Blue Ridge with some ice one top in all regions. My concern is we even have to step back on these a bit. Now, the cold air may not break down as fast it's just that the first wave goes well north and we don't do much of anything for a while.

Will update later, but as of now I'm not too high on BIG snow totals.

Lexington north up along 64 will do pretty well snow wise, with 4-8 inches.