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Thursday, September 9, 2010

New Home for Lynchburg Weather

As the NFL season starts, fall settles in and its time for me to begin working on my winter outlook. Last years outlook was a slam dunk..
I do enjoy tropical and severe weather, but at some point this hobby can become WAYY to much, so I do place 10x the effort into winter weather.

http://www.facebook.com/notes.php?id=507002058&notes_tab=app_2347471856#!/note.php?note_id=174886414694

I threw out temps at -2 for the winter and it was more like -4 ish region wide. Snowfall predicted 30' in LYH, 35' ROA and 45' down in Blacksburg. My overall feel for the winter was close--with the only bad part was missing the intense cold snap in early January.

We had a 10 ten snowfall winter--but pretty far off the all time mark set in 1995-1996. We did set a record for snow cover--- with the LYH airport reporting an inch of snow 42 days, shattering the old record of 36 days set in 1978

This winter will be a La Nina---the opposite of an El Nino meaning the global pattern will be much different. My early thoughts would hedge towards colder/ice/snow in December maybe into early January. From there, the pattern shifts and we sit on the mild side of things most of January and well into February. During this time, we will see SOME cold air outbreaks, but they won't last but 2-5 days at best.

The pattern MAY shift back late February into March---this is a may, not WILL.

I'm not willing to put any exact numbers, but I'd December comes in colder then normal, January comes in much above normal and February is slightly above. Snowfall is hard to call with one event often making or breaking this number. Normal in Lynchburg is 18 inches.  This winter looks to come in on the low side--with a higher risk for significant ice events.