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Friday, January 28, 2011

Ice event still looming-- doesn't appear to be significant, but still watching it.

Certainly, I tend to update more when larger events loom. The pending event Tuesday-Wednesday has SOME promise to be a marginal ice event. Some of the early model data had leaned towards a decent snow that changed to sleet and freezing rain, and they've moved to maybe a quick shot of sleet into freezing rain. SOME data shows temps in the upper 20's--which would make for a day of pretty bad travel, but no threat of power outages or down tree limbs.

As of now, I see there being a 6 to maybe 12 hour window where we could get some freezing rain. As the heavier precipitation approaches, we lose our connection to the parent high pressure and the "banana" high (piece that extended) over upstate New York slides out to sea. This is an impressive cold air mass coming down and a slight shift east of that MASSIVE arctic high will greatly influence the storms impact on our region.

Start time as of now is late Monday evening into Tuesday morning. If everything goes well, we are all rain by noon Tuesday.

Will update tomorrow-- As of now, 60% odds this is an advisory level event, 15% warning (.25 of ice or more) and 15% it's a non event.

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