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Friday, September 23, 2011

Winter Outlooks are trickling in--

Keith Allan is a "Professional Forecaster" from the DC region-- His outlooks at time have held "heavyweight" status to those who read and follow him. I'm going to share the forecast for this year plus some raw data from what he did in years past. I have a resource who has his forecasts all the way back to the 80's. I'd define his finest moment as the legendary winter of 1995-1996 where he called for 45 inches of snow in DC for the winter and there was 46.2.

His forecast is DC centeric, but I do read it and extrapolate what that should mean down in our region.

Snowfall for DCA:20-24".

December:+1
January:+2
February:-3

** Even though it's a math 0.0 he says the 2 out of 3 months being above average gives it a mild lean.

He thinks a 4"+ snow event in mid December, then quite mild until very late January and then turning very cold. He thinks a 6" to possibly 12" event will occur in February and well below average temps. He believes the cold will continue well into March. Even with a mild January he thinks there will be 1-2 freezing rain/sleet events for DC area.

Analogs:1946-47, 1966-67, 2006-07.



From Keith--


I'll let you grade him on his own merits once the winter ends. Longer range forecasting is some skill and some luck. With that, I'm hedging the first half of winter is "colder/snowier and the second half is milder/drier. 


His past years--
ACTUAL NUMBERS IN PARENS

2001-02

DEC: +2 (+6.0)
JAN: -2 (+6.7)
FEB: +3 (+4.5)

Overall: +1 (+5.7)


DCA SNOW: 10" (3.2")


2002-03

DEC: +0.5(-2.3)
JAN: -1(-3.8)
FEB: -3(-4.4)

Overall: -1.2(-3.5)

DCA snow: 20-25"(40.4")


2003-04

DEC: +1(-0.3)
JAN: -0.5(-4.3)
FEB: +2(+0.1)

Overall: +0.8(-1.5)

DCA snow: 12-14"(12.4")


2004-05

DEC: +2 to +3(+0.6)
JAN: +2(+1.2)
FEB: -2(+1.5)

Overall: +0.7 to +1(+1.1)

DCA snow: 14"(12.5")

2005-06

DEC: -1 to -2(-3.1)
JAN: -1 to -2(+8.2)
FEB: +3(+0.5)

Overall: -0.33 to +0.33, but call for slightly below normal(+1.9)

DCA snow: 25"(13.6")

2006-07

DEC: +2 to +4(+4.7)
JAN: +2 to+4(+5.8)
FEB: +2 to +4(-7.2)

Overall: +2 to +4(+1.1)

DCA Snow: 8" (9.5")

2007-08

DEC: +2 to +4 (+2.3)
JAN: +2 to +4 (+5.1)
FEB: +2 to +4 (+2.9)

Overall: +2 to +4 (+3.4)

DCA Snow: 10" (4.9")

2008-09

DEC:-1.0 (+0.8)
JAN:+1.0 (-3.3)
FEB:-2.0 (+1.7)

Overall: -0.67 (-0.3)

DCA Snow: 25" (7.5")

2009-10

Dec: +3 to +4 (-1.6)
Jan: +0.5 to +1.0 (+0.4)
Feb +3.0 or higher (-3.9)

Overall: +2 to +3 (-1.7)

DCA snow: 10-12" (56.1")

2010-11

Dec:-1 (-4.9)
Jan:+1 (-1.2)
Feb:-2 (+3.7)
Average:-0.67 (-0.8)

Snowfall DCA:20-24" (10.1") 



Some people just read patterns better-- he's never revealed the method to his madness, but ENSO isn't a HUGE factor as shown by many years. 




For our region--


06-07 was warm till Feb and once it got cold, the storms still tracked will to our north. We had one minor sleet storm, one 3 inch snowfall and ONE ice storm. 


66-67 was a good winter snow wise-- with a MAJOR snowfall region wide on Christmas eve-- 6+ inches in the NRV and Roanoke and over 10 inches in the LYH region. Over 30 inches of snow fell that winter, with + falling in December. 


46-47 was a a snow winter with almost 30 inches region wide. We had three 8 inch snowfalls in late Feb lasting into the end of March. 3 separate snowfalls of 8 inches. 


Take it for what it's worth-- 


My outlook should be out by mid November at the latest.