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Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Safe travels today-- big ticket weather event late weekend.

Everyone is likely about on the road now. The weather has been warm a few days, a couple cold and back to warm. This will continue. We've had the exact opposite of the pattern we'd need to get sustained cold. (Not that it's a bad thing in November, but often the November pattern does tip the hand of winter)

Keep an eye on the forecast for Sunday. Pretty intense storm passes to our west will place much of east coast in the warm and unstable sector. (AKA- late fall severe weather likely)

Good link to an article written by Wes Junker- He's likely the best forecaster I know- and it ain't that close from him to second. The article discusses what goes wrong and forecasting and why. Worth the read, even if you don't get all the science part.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/why-are-snowstorm-forecasts-sometimes-so-wrong-part-one/2011/11/23/gIQA4ZfaoN_blog.html#pagebreak


Happy thanksgiving to all! If a pattern change comes- I suspect Dec 15-20 will be the NEAREST time we experience it.

Friday, November 4, 2011

Winter Outlook--2011-2012

I waited until November to get in some data and the data does really help me at all. My sneak peak talked about the QBO-- and I wanted to see the October number and had that drop continued, I'd feel much more confident with a colder and possibly more snowy compared to the normal numbers. With that, my confidence is a lower than normal because the QBO dropped slightly, not a deeper drop.

I really should make a glossary that explains all these QBO, NAO stuff-- if your curious feel free to shoot me an email.

Winter 2011-2012

Slightly colder than normal winter wide--
Snowfall- slightly below LYH to DAN , NORMAL ROA Valley, Slightly above NRV up to the Highlands.

Maybe a decent event of 6-10 inches region wide, the rest will be more in the 1-3 inch range, often mixed with sleet, rain and freezing rain. These events will do much better to our west, hence my logic of normal to even above in the NRV and Highlands.

Snow guesses-

LYH  15.5
ROA 19
DAN 7
NRV   28

Give me a range of 2.5 inches either way on the snowfall. However, despite my snowfall totals being pretty good the past 2 years, it's some educate guesses and some luck.

Temps- compared to average

Dec  -1.5
Jan -1.5
Feb +1

So,that's slightly below normal

Factors- weak to moderate second year La Nina, -qbo (still hedging it drops) longer term pattern of blocking  up north (-NAO and -AO) -PDO (Usually favors warmth, but in second year nina's tend to trend cooler)
AMO- favors blocking as well.

Storm track-this fall has seen quite a bit of coastal storms both via Hurricane tracks and general areas of low pressure. I'm hedging less snow because of a moderate SE ridge-- won't kill the warmth but will allow storms to take a generalized pattern of INTO TN, KY WV region and reform to our north along the coast. That places us in the slope storms of 1-3 inches. I do expect QUITE a few of these storms and once or twice when the -NAO and AO are extremely negative we get 1-2 decent events.

There are some early signs that our December cold pattern is in the genesis stage and the pattern may begin to shift NOV 20th give or take and the cold may be evident by late month. Considering tomorrow is Nov 5th-- we've had WAYY to many snows on December 5th in the past 10 years.