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Thursday, October 25, 2012

ECMWF holds again over night-- WOW

I was expecting to wake up and the ECMWF had backed away from the EXTREME event in our area. We know this is already a significant event as it crashed into Cuba as Cat 2 ALMOST cat 3 event.

The EC has answered and said--


Sandy crashes ashore near Rehobeth, DE (Props to my Mom, that's where she lives) and retrogrades as it transitions from tropical to non tropical(moves backwards) and goes over DC and then up in Pennsylvania. 

I'm still very skeptical that EVEN if track verifies as shown that we get the snow as shown east of the Mts. I'm half joking, but I think the MTS may sink a few inches from the weight of 2-3 feet of snow. 


This shows 2 feet plus in the MTS to our west, and close to a foot in Lynchburg. 4-8 inches all the way down to Danville and Richmond. I doubt anything close to this verifies, but WOW on the consistency. 

So, landfall still seems to be somewhere between VAB and Cape Cod and then it moves WNW. The further south, more rain/snow our region gets. There are models that show other solutions with landfall further north. One thought in my mind is the magnitude of the block and how this will impact the overall track of Sandy as she transitions from tropical to extra tropical. Further updates later today!


1 comment:

  1. BTW, this has been MODEL FUN! This model is obviously WAY wrong, but snows 2-4 feet of snow well down into North Carolina.

    http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/

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