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Monday, October 29, 2012

Landfall- Atlantic city.

Well, well, well--

Leg one of my landfall at Atlantic City has verified well-  Needing a Philly to just north of Hagerstown and we've won the triathlon.

Crazy storm reports-- Winds on the north side of the storm WELL over Hurricane force gusts-- verified at 94, a few unverified reports OVER 100 in the NYC,Long Island area.

Crazy rains from New Jersey SW to DC area. 5-8 inches common with more on the way. Coastal regions have had historic flooding, beach erosion and much of NYC proper has MAJOR water issues.

My plan was to head up to Lewisburg WV tonight to see some snow, but I've got a recovering sick child. He's better, but needed daddy for the evening. Much of WV looks to be demolished overnight with a verified 8 inch total from a friend in Summerville, WV

For the bulk of our region- occasional light to maybe moderate rain continues. Winds will pick up with gusts over 60 in the Mts and 50 elsewhere. I don't think we see MUCH rain.. under a half inch near LYH and under a quarter inch Danville, Martinsville and Roanoke. These are hedged HI-- I think LESS rain.

IF, IF , IF we can get heavier bands in the region after 2 AM-- it will be mixed with snow. My doubts are we DON'T get heavier bands in.

Snow map on short term model-- sees 2 feet by noon tomorrow MUCH of WV.

Here is the Lynchburg profile at 6 am-- I highlighted the last three layers, or about 1500 feet of the atmosphere that's above freezing. However, it's only a few degrees, like 36-37 so if it comes down hard we COULD hoover around around 33 with some snow. My hunch is the rain stays BARELY east of us and once it cools we are basically dry. 

Near miss with moisture and temps... don't be shocked to see a few flurries. 

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