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Saturday, October 27, 2012

Stay on Target....

I see no drastic changes to any forecast you are going to see out there. The bottom line is-- does it land in the Delmarva OR some where in New Jersey. 

I've posted a few times on Facebook that I see a landfall of Sandy near Atlantic City--moving to Philly and then sitting just north of Hagerstown. This doesn't meant THOSE areas will get the worst. More like 125 miles to the SOUTH of the landfall point and upwards of 250 miles NORTH will get big rains and strong and long duration tropical storm winds. Outside the immediate coast of DE and NJ, I don't think there will be "Hurricane Force" winds very far inland. (like as in a few miles) However, Billions of damage via erosion on the coast and down trees, power outages, etc will extend far and away from the "landfall" point. Pretty dangerous anywhere along the coast for flooding and winds.

Sandy actually had a good bit of weakening last night and was down graded to a tropical storm. She's looking better and back up to a Hurricane. I can see it peaking at a cat two before the slingshot to the west as she approaches the coast. 

For the Lynchburg-Roanoke area specifically. 

For our area- we'll have some lighter showers tomorrow into Monday and heavier rains will begin to move in from the NW and E. Don't be shocked if SOME areas-- don't see much rain, especially West of Lynchburg west to Roanoke and Martinsville. 

Winds- Highest elevations will see the worst with gusts over 50, where the west of the world lives will be a duration of 20-30 miles with gusts to 40. 

Snow- EPIC event for the MTS of West Virginia. Still very up in the air where some models pull the storm so far W that Garret County actually changes back to rain on a WARM FRONT out the NE while lewisburg and Beckley areas get 12+ inches of snow. If it takes the PERFECT tract-- Don't be shocked for a remote place like Snowshoe or Davis to get 3-4 feet. 

Where people live like Lynchburg-- We can see some snow showers or flurries Late Monday night and Tuesday. I don't expect any risk of accumulations, but knowing we got a few flakes off a hurricane  would be pretty cool. With a VERY cold pool of air aloft, we could get a decent little burst of snow SOMEWHERE east of the Mountains Tuesday. (Decent for October, NOT accumulating)

My PERSONAL plan is to work Monday and then shoot up to Lewisberg WV Monday night-- My office is  in Roanoke right off 220 and it's 75 miles. Only about 20 of those miles would be snow covered getting back Tuesday morning. 

One crazy snow map-- 19+ inches most of WV and some of the snow sneaks east of the mts. ( Don't be shocked if some place gets a coating to a slopping inch or two Tuesday. 

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