After another 24 hours of model runs, there has been a modest switch towards the ECMWF with the more southern route of Sandy. The GFS or American model really had moved in that direction for a couple runs but then went back to a more northern landfall.
Where things sit now.
1. She's coming-- no doubt.
All coastal regions need to be aware and plan ahead. The watches have been extended up past Cape Hattares for Tropical Storm conditions and they should be extended north. Because it jogs west NORTH, I suspect Hurricane watches issues from near Virginia Beach to Long Island or something like that.
2. For our region, some lighter rains out in front of the storm late tonight into tomorrow then the waiting game starts. We need the southern track for the rain to really impact us and the **possible ** change to snow. Ironically, the ECMWF has moved so far south, as modeled the snow actually misses Lynchburg MOSTLY to the south and west. We do get a good bit of rain in the lines of 2-3 inches. Roanoke gets some snow and the NRV and Highlands get a nice snow. (After a little rain) The other models that are further north have the backside snow, just little or no rain.
3. This is still extremely fluid where the smaller changes matter. With that, despite this being a large system, the worst impact will be along coastal regions. The further south the landfall, the better shot of seeing decent rainfall in our region.
4. Snowfall will impact the higher grounds. As said before, the models were CRAZY with bringing heavy snow into Roanoke, Lynchburg, Danville and Richmond. The last 2 runs of the ECMWF have been so far south that Lyncburg actually is too far north and east and the best snows chance past to our west, south southwest and south east. Don't over obsess because as stated before, my suspicions are the model is a little to cold on the back side of the storm.
Bottom line- if you want to see snow drive to the Ski resorts of West Virginia!