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Friday, October 26, 2012

Still Holding...

After another 24 hours of model runs, there has been a modest switch towards the ECMWF with the more southern route of Sandy. The GFS or American model really had moved in that direction for a couple runs but then went back to a more northern landfall.

Where things sit now.

1. She's coming-- no doubt.

All coastal regions need to be aware and plan ahead. The watches have been extended up past Cape Hattares for Tropical Storm conditions and they should be extended north. Because it jogs west NORTH, I suspect Hurricane watches issues from near Virginia Beach to Long Island or something like that.

2. For our region, some lighter rains out in front of the storm late tonight into tomorrow then the waiting game starts. We need the southern track for the rain to really impact us and the **possible ** change to snow. Ironically, the ECMWF has moved so far south, as modeled the snow actually misses Lynchburg MOSTLY to the south and west. We do get a good bit of rain in the lines of 2-3 inches. Roanoke gets some snow and the NRV and Highlands get a nice snow. (After a little rain) The other models that are further north have the backside snow, just little or no rain.

3. This is still extremely fluid where the smaller changes matter. With that, despite this being a large system, the worst impact will be along coastal regions. The further south the landfall, the better shot of seeing decent rainfall in our region.

4. Snowfall will impact the higher grounds. As said before, the models were CRAZY with bringing heavy snow into Roanoke, Lynchburg, Danville and Richmond. The last 2 runs of the ECMWF have been so far south that Lyncburg actually is too far north and east and the best snows chance past to our west, south southwest and south east. Don't over obsess because as stated before, my suspicions are the model is a little to cold on the back side of the storm.

First map- 12z run of the ECMWF snowfall-- CRAZY 4 feet totals over mountains of WV. This assumes a 10-1 ratio which likely isn't correct (the entire storm at least) plus the snow/no snow line is VERY close to LYH. The snow that falls to our south and east wraps around the city later. I'm not forecasting this, but it's been some of the craziest model outputs ever. Other models have crazy 1-2 foot solutions over the Mountains of WV, with coating to a couple inches east of there. Those are MUCH more reasonable.

This last map shows how if the coldest models verify, how Lynchburg could miss snow, but Roanoke and Danville get snow. Because of the warm core nature of the a hurricane, if you are too close to the center, the warn nature keeps you RAIN. As the storm moves WEST the cold air wraps around the south side of the low. The grid on the bottom shows how the first true shade of blue STOP around the Blue Ridge and show up lets say south of the Staunton River. With that, I've stated before the models are very likely too cold top to bottom, but crazier things have happened. For LYH to have any shot of seeing accumulating snow, Sandy comes ashore near Southern New Jersey and crosses the Delaware Bay and heads into Northern Maryland coming to a point near Hagerstown, MD or slightly north.

Bottom line- if you want to see snow drive to the Ski resorts of West Virginia!

1 comment:

  1. nice to hear... too far for snow... I probably just lost my friend status. I think I will do the same as with the derecho-- nothing and luck out... or so I hope. Thanks for the update, as one of the few people who doesn't have cable and doesn't watch tv (the free non cable channels)... w/o your updates I would never know anything ahead of time!

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