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Monday, November 5, 2012

So close, yet so far away.

Due to time constraints ( due to a new puppy) I won't post TOO many maps.

Most guidance is WELL to our east with the storm, but the reigning champ, the ECMWF pulls Sandy CLOSE enough the a little light rain and snow back into Lynchburg while Farmville, Charlottsville, Harrisonburg and even Amherst get a decent mid fall snow. Rare, but not unheard of. (See Nov 1953 and Nov 1968)

ECMWF phases the two vorts sooner and the the storm is closer and more negative tilt. Here is a shot of it as the snow/rain has BARELY scraped LYH. If something CLOSE to this happens, will be a dicey forecast for our region. I'll assume this is more right then wrong, but give the other models 25% weight and move everything 50 miles Northeast at this time.

Temps are BARELY below freezing and a couple degrees either way could make a huge difference.

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