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Sunday, November 4, 2012

The Mid Week NorEaster!

I almost long for the days when I was breaking events 5-6 days out before the media. Social media and just the net in general have quickly added to the avenues people can find medium range thoughts and speculation.

Sandy was nothing short of a spectacular event with catastrophic results, especially in the Northern Jersey/NYC area. Despite the quick "labeled" transition to extra tropical the system had a HUGE storm surge and like a landfalling tropical system, strongest winds on the north side. I LOVE interesting weather events, but seeing that level of human suffering his just horrific. Having numerous friends in the region and chatting on FB makes it interesting.


Perhaps I owed my loyal readers a quick update about this event. I was on the fence with some models far enough west for a couple days to bring meaningful precipitation back into our region. The models have trended a little east and the best precipitation slides basically Charlottesville/Famville east.

Do I think that's accurate? As of now-- Yes. I don't think we need will see much rain (or snow) from this event. Best chance for snow will be north well north of Harrisonburg from Winchester up 81 to NY. And, honestly maybe even NOT into VA.

Can this change? sure-- weather forecasting is always fluid. We need a faster phasing of the jet to slide this thing west AND it to BOMB further south, lets say as it passes Cape Hatteras. I'll update quickly in the AM when I see the overnight data.

My winter outlook will be out later this week. Sean Sublette had a nice one for WSET.

http://www.wset.com/video?clipId=7883542&autostart=true

I like his thought process

Allen Huffman is an excellent met from NC State-
http://www.examiner.com/article/winter-2012-13-forecast-part-1

http://www.examiner.com/article/winter-2012-13-forecast-part-2

Hope to get my final thoughts by Friday.

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